Strategies

Probability Based Investing

Probability Based Investing strategies look at the probability that markets will move up or down based on how they have historically responded to historical events.

Examples:

  • Since 1950, stocks have rallied in the year following midterm elections every single time
  • Stocks tend to rally the week of thanksgiving (when many traders are away on vacation and volume is light)
  • Markets do well in years where congress is split (different parties control the house and senate)