Goldman Sachs Bear Market Probability Model
The Goldman Sachs Bear Market Probability Model combines a group of economic and market indicators to infer how likely a bear market is at a current time.
- The model combines a group of indicators that each can be used to indicate a market top
- The model assigns each month a score
- When the score is at the lower end of the models historical averages, the stock market is expected to rise in future the future year(s)
- When the score is at the upper end of the models historic avages, the stock market is expected to perform poorly in the future year(s)
- U.S. unemployment rate
- ISM Manufacturing Index
- U.S. Yield Curve
- U.S. inflation rate
- S&P 500 price to earnings ratio