Martin Armstrong
Martin Armstrong is an American economist, financial forecaster, and Founder of Armstrong Economics, a research platform focused on geopolitics, global markets, and economic cycles. He is best known for developing the Economic Confidence Model, a cyclical theory based on business cycles and the mathematical constant Pi, and for high-profile predictions such as the 1987 stock market crash, the 1989 Nikkei collapse, and Russia’s 1998 financial crisis. A controversial figure, Armstrong was charged in 1999 with defrauding Japanese investors of approximately $700 million and concealing assets, leading to prosecution by the SEC and CFTC and a seven-year prison sentence. Today, he continues to share economic insights and market analysis through Armstrong Economics, attracting a global audience.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL
The Economic Confidence Model (ECM), often referred to as the Pi Cycle, is a cyclical forecasting tool that analyzes the global flow of capital to identify shifts in confidence driving major economic events.
Recognized for its accuracy, the ECM has successfully anticipated key turning points in the global economy and business cycle, including the 1987 stock market crash, the 1989 Nikkei collapse, and Russia’s 1998 financial crisis—widely regarded as significant forecasting achievements.
Armstrong’s work with the model earned him accolades such as “Fund Manager of the Year” and the nickname “Mr. Yen” in Japan.
MARKET EXPERTISE
Armstrong’s work spans diverse themes, including market cycles, geopolitical dynamics, and global economic policy, often presented in a contrarian style that draws both strong support and criticism.
His expertise led to an invitation from the U.S. Congress, where he briefed the House Ways & Means Committee on the complexities of the global economy.
Over the years, Armstrong has also been sought for advice by governments across Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.
RECOGNITIONS
2015 FX Person of the Year
1998 Hed Fund Manager of the Year
1989 Economist of the Decade
1983 WSJ Highest-Paid Adviser in the World
LEGAL ISSUES & IMPRISONMENT
In 1999, Martin Armstrong was accused of operating a Ponzi scheme that defrauded Japanese investors of roughly $700 million and of concealing $15 million in assets.
He was jailed for nearly seven years on civil contempt charges—one of the longest such cases in U.S. white-collar history—and later served an additional five years after pleading guilty to conspiracy. Armstrong was released in 2011.