Innovation Cycles

• At first new technologies start out fuzzy, then they are clear
• The costs of new technologies tends to fall exponentially (per unit) over time
• The speed/capacity/throughput of electronics and information technologies tends to increase exponentially over time
• The cost of physical-world technologies tends to decrease following a polynomial curve over time (robots, rockets)

Mega Innovations:  innovations that changed the way humans live and operate (500 year cycle)

• Printing Press = changed communication, literacy and learning;   500years later the computer
• Gunpowder changed fighting in the 1400s;  the Atom bomb 500 years later
• Tall Sailing Ships;  500 years later jet airplanes
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