Harry Dent

Harry Dent

Formal First Name
Harold (Harry)
1950 - present

Harry S. Dent Jr. is a bestselling author and a well-known demographic. He is a famed expert when it comes to cycles, history, and economics. Dent anticipated the populist wave that has driven the Brexit vote, the election of Donald Trump, and other recent shocks around the world.

Professional Experience

Academic History

Harry Dent Expertise

Harry Dent Beliefs

  • Long Term Bull - thanks to exponential growth, urbanization & technology
  • Short-Term Bear - expects a crash as part of bubbles bursting and natural downward part of cycles
  • Believes that inflation is actually good and a sign of urbanization/specialization/growth.  However, asset inflation is bad.
    • Inflation is an indicator of rising living standards and economic progress
  • Capitalism & Democracy:  Ying and Yang of Massive Growth
    • Capitalism: rewards and incentivizes innvovators, but is competitive and polarizing (rich take all)
    • Democracy:  encourages and rewards cooperation for shared prosperity;  more inclusive and cooperative
    • Together they balance each other out and have driving massive growth and prosperity since the late 1700s

  • In the 90sPredicted that demographics would drive social change in addition to economic changes
    • Widening wealth gap, populism, social struggles (rich vs. poor)
  • Has written many books
  • Is a popular guest on tv and radio shows
  • Went to Harvard Business School
  • Worked as a consultant for Bain & Company
  • Worked as a consultant for startups
  • Father was a politician
  • Father-in-law was an investor (got him interested in investing)
  • Stumbled upon demographics while doing research for clients
    • In 1980s spent 1/2 time consulting (to get by) and 1/2 time researching (10,000+ hour to become expert)
  • Doesn't believe in "Black Swans" - thinks that we can predict and see things coming
  • Believes that major events and changes are predictable - unlike classical economists
  • Believes that everything is driven by people (inflation, economy, GDP, demand for products, etc).
  • Believes that recessions are required
    • They are drivers of innovation
    • They create opportunity for the young
  • Believes that natural inflation is a good thing
    • Specialization of Labor = More Transaction = More Need for $ = Inflation
      •     We have to pay other people more money to do something than we could do it for ourselves
    • Specialization of Labor = Better Efficiency = Better Lifestyles = Good
    • Therefor:  Inflation = Good
  • Follows a number of Cycles to build out his predictions
  • Loves history and cycles

Short Term Cycles Harry Dent Tracks Closely (to help predict markets)

Other Dent Cycles

Thoughts on Gold

  • Thinks gold is great when their is inflation (1970s)
  • Expects gold to go down when there is deflation (it is not a deflation hedge)
  • Long-Term (2038-2040) expects gold to go way up to many thousands of dollars per ounce

Personal History

  • Father was a politician