Harry Dent

• Started predicting economic and market behavior using demographics in 1982
• Is an expert on historic bubbles
• spent 30 years studying economics, demographics, cycles, history, and bubbles.
  

Harry Dent Beliefs

• Long Term Bull - thanks to exponential growth, urbanization & technology
• Short-Term Bear - expects a crash as part of bubbles bursting and natural downward part of cycles
• Believes that inflation is actually good and a sign of urbanization/specialization/growth.  However, asset inflation is bad.
• Inflation is an indicator of rising living standards and economic progress
• Capitalism & Democracy:  Ying and Yang of Massive Growth
• Capitalism: rewards and incentivizes innvovators, but is competitive and polarizing (rich take all)
• Democracy:  encourages and rewards cooperation for shared prosperity;  more inclusive and cooperative
• Together they balance each other out and have driving massive growth and prosperity since the late 1700s

• In the 90sPredicted that demographics would drive social change in addition to economic changes
• Widening wealth gap, populism, social struggles (rich vs. poor)
• Has written many books
• Is a popular guest on tv and radio shows
• Went to Harvard Business School
• Worked as a consultant for Bain & Company
• Worked as a consultant for startups
• Father was a politician
• Father-in-law was an investor (got him interested in investing)
• Stumbled upon demographics while doing research for clients
• In 1980s spent 1/2 time consulting (to get by) and 1/2 time researching (10,000+ hour to become expert)
• Doesn't believe in "Black Swans" - thinks that we can predict and see things coming
• Believes that major events and changes are predictable - unlike classical economists
• Believes that everything is driven by people (inflation, economy, GDP, demand for products, etc).
• Believes that recessions are required
• They are drivers of innovation
• They create opportunity for the young
• Believes that natural inflation is a good thing
• Specialization of Labor = More Transaction = More Need for $ = Inflation
•     We have to pay other people more money to do something than we could do it for ourselves
  
• Specialization of Labor = Better Efficiency = Better Lifestyles = Good
• Therefor:  Inflation = Good
• Follows a number of Cycles to build out his predictions
• Loves history and cycles

Short Term Cycles Harry Dent Tracks Closely (to help predict markets)

• 45 year technology cycle
• 40 year generational spending cycle
• 35 year geopolitical cycle

Other Dent Cycles

• 500 year mega inflation & innovation cycle
• 250 year revolutionary cycle
• 165 year east to west cycle334443
• 84 year populist revolution cycle
• 
  

Thoughts on Gold

• Thinks gold is great when their is inflation (1970s)
• Expects gold to go down when there is deflation (it is not a deflation hedge)
• Long-Term (2038-2040) expects gold to go way up to many thousands of dollars per ounce

Personal History

• Father was a politician