Publications

Finance and Economics Discussion Series

Type
Link
Cost
Paid
Published
2013
Updated
2015
Full Name
Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Motor Vehicle Stocks, Scrappage, and Sales

Motor Vehicle Stocks, Scrappage, and Sales is part of the Finance and Economics Discussion Series that presents a new framework for analyzing the complete sales of new motor vehicles that incorporates different models for the change in the vehicle stock and the rate of vehicle scrappage. It has been proven useful as a macroeconomic forecasting tool that requires only a minimal set of assumptions about demographic trends, such as the state of economy, consumer preferences, new vehicle prices and repair costs, and vehicle retirements. This Finance and Economics Discussion Series also features a new historical annual time series estimate of motor vehicle stocks in the United States.

Table of Contents

  • I. Introduction
  • II. The Stock of Motor Vehicles
  • III. Engineering Scrappage
  • IV. Cyclical Scrappage
  • V. Forecasting Motor Vehicle Sales
  • VI. Conclusion
  • References
  • Appendix 1: Two Methods of Computing Scrappage Rates
  • Appendix 2: More on Polk Data and Alternative Data Sources