Edward McQuarrie

• His research has shown that bonds have have outperformed stocks over various periods of time (including long periods)
• Leveraged securities data from Richard Sylla and Jack Wilson to prove this
• Wrote a paper in 2017 titled "Stock Market Charts You Never Saw"
• shows that investors may not recover from market crashs in their lifespan
• casts doubt on the buy and hold strategy
• Focuses on data pre 1926 that investors are not usually shown
• Paper can be found at:   https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3050736
• Research shows that there can be long periods where holding on to stocks is a bad strategy.  Example:
• Assume  buying stocks in 1929
• The stocks don't return to their same real (after inflation) value until 1957
• Stocks are later hurt with inflation in the 1970s.
• By 1975 the real value of the stocks would be lower than the real value back in 1929 
• The real value of stock only starts making gains in 1985!
• The crash of 1987 then drove real values down again close to 1929 levels

• His research has quested that idea that stocks outperform bonds over the long run
• His response to the idea of "Stocks for the Long Run" is that "it all depends"
• Doesn't always believe that there is an equity premium.  Stocks can sometimes do better than equities
• Bonds performed better than stocks during the first few decades of the 19th century

McQuarrie Essays to Read:

1. The First Eighty Years of the U.S. Bond Market:  Investor Total Return from 1793, Combining Federal, Municipal and Corporate Bonds.

McQuarrie Reasearch Criticisms

• The historical data he used may not be complete or accurate (some data could be left out)