Sahm Consulting
Sahm Consulting, also known as Stay-at-Home Macro Consulting, offers data-driven, independent analysis for fund managers, executives, and local business groups on the macroeconomic outlook and the Fed and fiscal policy. The firm is founded by Claudia Sahm, a highly regarded expert on monetary policy, fiscal policy and forecasting. Through Sahm Consulting, she conducts cutting-edge, academic style research using Heterogeneous and Representative Agent New Keynesian (HANK) and (RANK) models. Sahm Consulting also provides bespoke macroeconomic analysis and academic-style and policy papers.
SAHM CONSULTING SERVICES
Bespoke analysis on a range of topics and depth.
Investor Talks & Calls.
Talks on client-driven topics with original empirical analysis, research, and policy insights.
Public Speaking.
Keynote speaker or panelist for various audiences.
Media Engagement.
Interviews on TV and in print across media outlets.
Opinion Writing.
Writing on timely economic and policy topics in a distinct voice.
THE SAHM RULE
The Sahm Rule is a reliable early signal of recessions that she developed as a way to automatically trigger stimulus payments to individuals in a recession.
It uses the three-month moving of the U.S. unemployment rate. If the latest value of that series is 0.5 percentage points or more above its low over the prior twelve months, then the United States is in the early months of a recession.
The Sahm rule has triggered within, but never outside, every recession since the 1970s.
ABOUT THE FOUNDER
Claudia Sahm is a highly-regarded expert on monetary policy, fiscal policy and forecasting.
She is the creator of The Sahm Rule, a widely-used and highly accurate recession indicator.
She has policy and research expertise in macroeconomics, consumer spending, and household finance.
Her research focuses on consumer behavior and preferences, including responses to fiscal stimulus, income expectations, and economic measurement.
She has advised decision-makers at the Federal Reserve, White House, and Congress.